Climate Etc.

The catastrophe narrative

Posted on November 14, 2018 by curryja | 421 comments

by Andy West

A narrative propagated by emotive engagement, not veracity.

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421 Comments

Posted in Communication, Sociology of science

Resplandy et al. Part 2: Regression in the presence of trend and scale systematic errors

Posted on November 7, 2018 by niclewis | 167 comments

by Nic Lewis

In a recent article I set out why I thought that the trend in ΔAPO_Climate was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated, in the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake study. In this article I expand on the brief explanation of the points made about “trend errors” and “scale systematic errors” given in my original article, as these are key issues involved in estimating the trend in ΔAPO_Climate and its uncertainty.

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167 Comments

Posted in Oceans

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper

Posted on November 6, 2018 by niclewis | 410 comments

by Nic Lewis

Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are. Continue reading →

410 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

Posted on October 18, 2018 by niclewis | 121 comments

by Nic Lewis

A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights statements in SR15 relating to carbon emission budgets for meeting the 1.5°C and 2°C targets.

It seems fairly extraordinary to me that the AR5 post-2010 carbon budget for 1.5°C, which was only published four years ago, has in effect been now been increased by ~700 GtCO₂ – equal to 21st century emissions to date – despite SR15’s projections of future warming being based very largely on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) range exhibited by the models used in AR5. Continue reading →

121 Comments

Posted in climate models, IPCC

Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?

Posted on October 11, 2018 by curryja | 330 comments

by Judith Curry

On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

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330 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

1.5 degrees

Posted on October 8, 2018 by curryja | 275 comments

by Judith Curry

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C is now published [link].

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275 Comments

Posted in IPCC

The most amazing greening on Earth

Posted on September 19, 2018 by curryja | 225 comments

by Patrick J. Michaels

We’ve long been fond of showing the satellite evidence for planetary greening caused by increasing carbon dioxide, particularly the work of Zhu et al.(2016):

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225 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Hurricane Florence: climate dynamics context

Posted on September 18, 2018 by curryja | 62 comments

by Judith Curry

“Impending massive hurricanes bring the best out of weather twitter and the worst out of climate twitter” – Joseph Maykut

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62 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes

A Test of the Tropical 200-300 mb Warming Rate in Climate Models

Posted on September 17, 2018 by curryja | 250 comments

by Ross McKitrick

I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression.

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250 Comments

Posted in climate models

Beyond Milankovitch

Posted on September 8, 2018 by curryja | 375 comments

by Donald Rapp

On the terminations of Ice Ages.

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375 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity

Posted on September 5, 2018 by niclewis | 150 comments

By Nic Lewis

A critique of of a new paper by Andrews et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.

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150 Comments

Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks

The lure of incredible certitude

Posted on September 1, 2018 by curryja | 476 comments

by Judith Curry

“If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”- Charles Manski

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476 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Uncertainty in climate projections

Posted on August 20, 2018 by curryja | 251 comments

by Judith Curry

My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.

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251 Comments

Posted in climate models, Uncertainty

Nature Unbound X – The next glaciation

Posted on August 14, 2018 by curryja | 522 comments

by Javier

Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO₂levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows they depend on obliquity-linked summer energy, ice-volume, and eccentricity, and they end at glacial inception after ~ 6000 years of Neoglaciation-type temperature decline. The lag between orbital forcing and ice volume change indicates the orbital threshold for glacial inception is crossed thousands of years before glacial inception, and the Holocene went through that threshold long ago. In the absence of sufficient anthropogenic forcing glacial inception should take place in 1500-2500 years. The long interglacial hypothesis rests on the wrong astronomical parameter, high-equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO₂, and uncertain model predictions of very long-tailed CO₂decay. It is not possible to determine at present if a glacial inception will take place over the next millennia. The precautionary principle indicates we should prepare for that eventuality as it would constitute the worst catastrophe humankind has ever faced.

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522 Comments

Posted in Prediction

Hothouse Earth

Posted on August 8, 2018 by curryja | 379 comments

by Judith Curry

We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.

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379 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

The perils of ‘near-tabloid science’

Posted on July 22, 2018 by curryja | 483 comments

by Judith Curry

A remarkable essay by esteemed oceanographer Carl Wunsch.

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483 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science, Uncertainty

Climate uncertainty & risk

Posted on July 8, 2018 by curryja | 537 comments

by Judith Curry

I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

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537 Comments

Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty

The Hansen forecasts 30 years later

Posted on July 3, 2018 by curryja | 235 comments

by Ross McKitrick and John Christy

Note: this is a revised version to correct the statement about CFCs and methane in Scenario B.

How accurate were James Hansen’s 1988 testimony and subsequent JGR article forecasts of global warming? According to a laudatory article by AP’s Seth Borenstein, they “pretty much” came true, with other scientists claiming their accuracy was “astounding” and “incredible.” Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue in the Wall Street Journal, and Calvin Beisner in the Daily Caller, disputed this.

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235 Comments

Posted in Prediction