by Steve McGee
Unlike many fiscal budgets, earth’s energy budget is widely believed to be in surplus.
by Steve McGee
Unlike many fiscal budgets, earth’s energy budget is widely believed to be in surplus.
Posted in Data and observations
by Greg Goodman
Update added at end of article
Running means are often used as a simple low pass filter (usually without understanding its defects). Often it is referred to as a “smoother”.
Posted in Data and observations
by Judith Curry
Motivated by the paper by Cowtan and Way, this post examines uncertainties in the recent variability of Arctic temperatures.
Posted in Data and observations, Polar regions
by Euan Mearns and Clive Best
In this post we present evidence that suggests 88% of temperature variance and one-third of net warming observed in the UK since 1956 can be explained by cyclical change in UK cloud cover.
Posted in Attribution, Data and observations
by Judith Curry
Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.
Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
A paper published Science finds reconstructed Pacific Ocean heat content has been significantly higher throughout the vast majority of the past ~10,000 years in comparison to the latter 20th century.
“The findings support the view that the Holocene Thermal Maximum, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age were global events, and they provide a long-term perspective for evaluating the role of ocean heat content in various warming scenarios for the future.”
Posted in Data and observations
by Judith Curry
Ocean heat sequestration: false sense of security, or a solution to the global (surface) warming problem?
Posted in Data and observations
by Rud Istvan
One of the catastrophes associated with anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) is a rising sea. Is the projected rise and rate unprecedented? Will it be catastrophic?
by Judith Curry
The ‘pause’ has gone mainstream, with an article by Justin Gillis in the NYTimes.
by Judith Curry
We’re screwed: 11,000 years’ worth of climate data prove it. It’s among the most compelling bits of proof out there that human beings are behind global warming, and as such has become a target on Mann’s back for climate denialists looking to draw a bead on scientists. — The Atlantic, March 9th
We’re not screwed. The trouble is, as they quietly admitted over the weekend, their new and stunning claim is groundless. The real story is only just emerging, and it isn’t pretty. – Ross McKitrick
Posted in Data and observations, Ethics
by Judith Curry
Kevin Trenberth famously stated in the CRU emails:
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.
Posted in Data and observations
by Rud Istvan
This instantly ‘famous’ 2013 Science hockey stick paper derived from Marcott’s 2011 Ph.D thesis at Oregon State University, available here. His thesis doesn’t show a hockey stick ‘blade’ projecting above its anomaly baseline NCDC 1961-1990. H/T to Jean S, posted at Climate Audit. Something changed after the thesis was published to produce the new ‘blade’ in Science. That something was significant, since the Science paper’s Supplementary Information discussion said it did not enable discriminating such a temperature variation (i.e. a ‘blade’) on such a short a time scale.
Posted in Data and observations
by Rud Istvan
On March 8, 2013, mainstream media around the world carried headlines trumpeting a new study in Science, the gist typified by NBC News:
Warming fastest since dawn of civilization
Except that is not what the paper was about.
Posted in Data and observations
by Steve Mosher
It has been a while since we’ve done an update and there is much to report on, including an update to the web site, some additional memos/papers to discuss and an update on the papers. Let’s start with the web site.
Posted in Data and observations
by Judith Curry
On the acceleration of sea level rise, the Gilligan effect, and the garbage solution.
Posted in Attribution, Data and observations
by Judith Curry
The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. – Thompson et al.
Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
by Judith Curry
This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earth’s climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. – Graeme Stephens et al.
Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty
Hurricane – Post-Tropical Storm Sandy is one of “those” moments. A moment that rallies the public and policy makers around an issue. Other “those” moments include 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina. In the wake of Sandy, an array of issues have surfaced including the role of climate change, vulnerability of urban infrastructure, and how it will effect the U.S. Presidential election. As I write this, another Nor’easter looks to impact the same region in the days after the election.
Posted in Data and observations, Hurricanes, Policy
by Judith Curry
The demand for climate information, with long observational records spanning decades to centuries and the information’s broad application for decision making across many socioeconomic sectors, requires that geophysicists adopt more rigorous processes for the sustained production of climate data records (CDRs). Such processes, methods, and standards are more typically found in the systems engineering community and have not generally been adopted in the climate sci- ence community. – John Bates and Jeffrey Privette
Posted in Data and observations
by Judith Curry
The MSM and blogosphere are still roiling over David Rose’s article last Sunday, here is the latest, including a new article by David Rose.
Posted in Attribution, Communication, Data and observations
by Steven Mosher and Zeke Hausfather
Today the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project released a major update to their temperature data. The update includes:
The link to the new paper from the Berkeley Earth group is [here].
Posted in Data and observations